May 14, 2022

The Syrian Civil War

By Robert S. Ford
Middle East Institute
April 2019


Extract

IRAN

Assad's key partner is not Russia but rather Iran, which has provided most of the manpower that has enabled Assad to keep fighting. In 2013 when Assad’s hold on power was weakening, Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah's critical intervention turned the tide in Homs Province. In 2014-15 Iran's al-Quds Force, the foreign and clandestine wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), led by General Qassem Soleimani, mobilized fighters from Iraqi Shi'a militant groups such as Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kata'ib Hezbollah to fight in Syria. It also organized Afghans and Pakistanis into the Afghan Fatemiyoun and Pakistani Zainebiyoun brigades, which it sent to Syria. These groups provided decisive manpower in many of the battles the Syrian government won between 2015 and 2018. Outside analysts estimated that Iran provided as many as 80,000 foreign Shi'a fighters to support Assad. These Iranian-backed foreign Shi'a militias, under IRGC command, are deeply embedded into the broader Syrian security force order of battle and command network.
 
Iran's principle goal is to ensure the survival of the Assad government, which in turn provides strategic depth to Lebanese Hezbollah and the Iranian-backed "resistance front" against Israel. (This front seeks to deter Israel from carrying out a direct attack against Iran, and the confrontation with Israel gives Iran and its allies at least a nominal claim to regional leadership.) The Iranian government has repeatedly asserted that forces under its command will remain in Syria, while denouncing the presence of American forces in eastern Syria as well as American support for the People's Protection Units (YPG) militia and local Arab fighters. Iran's material losses have not been great, as Iraqi, Lebanese, Afghan, and Pakistani fighters bore the brunt of losses under Iranian command. Iran's difficult economic circumstances, notably oil export revenue cuts, are starting to hinder its activities in Syria, but the Iranian government is firmly committed to a long-term presence there.

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